Another alliterative sports extravaganza in the form of March Madness is closing, and the Final Four — a semifinal perhaps more iconic in its branding than the national championship game itself — is set. The field gathers teams (two first seeds and a second and third) projected as at least probable to be in the position to cut down the nets before rosters evaporate and everyone runs to their next and presumably higher-paying deal.
The Big 12 has a representative for the second consecutive season. Arizona is hoping to succeed where Houston failed last year by advancing to the title game and winning it. The Wildcats boast an impressive record with only two losses from an early February conference skid when they lost back-to-back games, once on the road against Kansas, then in overtime hosting Texas Tech. The tournament has been a breeze so far for the Zonies, who seemed to face a much greater challenge winning the conference tournament than destroying their first four national-championship contenders by an average margin of just more than 20 points per game. Even when trailing second-seed Purdue by 7 at halftime this past weekend, Arizona charged back for an eventual 15-point victory to secure their spot in the semifinal.
Their opponent, who played a complete snoozer in the Elite 8, Michigan, is the other 1-seed in the group and has been similarly dominant through their first four postseason games, losing only three times this season to Wisconsin, Duke, and most notably Purdue, who were able to best the Wolverines to steal their conference crown. Despite there being more cross-conference competition in basketball as compared to football, the Boilermakers as a common recent opponent is notable, as Arizona seems to have the edge as well as the slightly better record and proven ability to perform when it matters. U of M knocked Tennessee straight off Rocky Top, cruising to a 22-point advantage by halftime and an eventual 33-point victory over the even-uglier-orange UT, so perhaps the Wolverines’ recently shaken confidence from the conference tournament is now moot.
If there is a David among the remaining teams — there isn’t — it’s the lowest-seeded Illinois. The Illini finished fourth in the Big 10 with eight losses but upset the second-seed and last year’s runner-up, the Houston Cougars, in the Sweet 16 thanks to frenetic scoring in the second half before sending Iowa home to harvest. The Hawkeyes were riding high after defeating defending champion Florida but were outscored by 16 during the second half by Illinois.
The last qualifier was decided in the final and hands-down best game of the weekend, Duke versus UConn. The Huskies, despite being a 2-seed, are the most successful men’s program since the turn of the century with five national titles. Their 1-seed opponent Duke shares second place with their hated rival, North Carolina, each with three since 2001. Duke, who thwarted a dangerous but inconsistent Horned Frog squad in the round of 32, seemed in control with a 15-point first-half advantage. Connecticut stormed back to an almost mirror-image second half but needed a gift trailing by two with nine seconds remaining and a Blue Devil possession. Unable to break the Husky press, freshman guard Cayden Boozer (whose twin brother Cameron Boozer is projected as the top NBA selection after this season) passed straight into outstretched Husky arms. The tipped ball recovered by UConn would result in a long triple from freshman guard Braylon Mullins that fell with less than a second remaining. Mullins shot five 3-point attempts on Sunday, but the game winner was the only successful one. Now, the ACC is shut out of the Final Four for the first time since 2021.
UConn, who despite being a second seed is still the modern top dog of collegiate basketball, rescued an otherwise underwhelming weekend of men’s hoops, but the absence of a true spoiler-squad has left the postseason feeling somewhat empty. Granted, it’s not nearly as bad as last season, when the semifinals featured the top seed from each region, but even a middling seed like sixth or seventh (every middle schooler just went wild) would make this tournament just a little more interesting. I’m not maligning the prognosticators who award these positions for good reasons, but the formula is much more fun when it’s shattered to pieces, especially in a game among the most volatile and streaky in college athletics.
As far as professional prospects go, the only projected Top-10 pick still dancing is Keaton Wagler from Illinois, though Michigan, UConn, and Arizona all have rosters with Top 20 players. The Huskies and Wolverines have multiple in the Top 30. Saturday night’s forthcoming matchup between Michigan and Arizona is the heavyweight bout as both top seeds come in with five combined losses and lead the nation in opposite efficiencies (defense for Michigan, offense for Arizona). Early betting lines put Michigan at a 1.5-point favorite, so essentially it’s a pick ’em for a trip to be the favorite in the final dance.
UConn and Illinois will play the earlier evening game with the Huskies coming in at 1.5-point underdogs, largely due to their dramatic arrival in the Final Four. Illinois have glided their way to this point, dispatching opponents handily (including Houston) but face a different level of playoff comfortability in Connecticut. Oddsmakers are largely hands off in this semifinal, understandably so, awarding less than a possession advantage either way. The confidence from UConn’s heroics against Duke, combined with coming from behind in the second half, should propel the Huskies to win against the Illini, who haven’t played a final-second stressfest in the tournament, perhaps to their detriment. Michigan is my pick for the headliner game, because I’m a boring guy in my 40s, and I’ll take a defensive juggernaut over an offensive onslaught any day, primarily because I’m stodgy and have no imagination.
As the tournament pertains to our hometown teams, a first-round victory against Ohio State by surviving a shaky second half before losing to 1-seed Duke was a feather in the cap of a season that wasn’t necessarily historic but an encouraging move in the correct direction for TCU’s men. The Frogs finished sixth in an absolutely loaded basketball conference that advanced eight teams to the postseason. The 11-7 Big 12 record is the best in program history under Coach Jamie Dixon, who previously achieved a 9-9 record in 2017-18 but had never had a winning final record since joining the conference. Dixon still badly needs to recruit a prolific front-court player or two to advance beyond the second round, but that’s much easier said than done. Dixon’s seat as head coach is presumably very safe — and should be — yet the success of TCU women’s Coach Mark Campbell might be the greatest risk to Dixon’s job security as Campbell has advanced to the Elite Eight for the second consecutive time in school history thanks to his ability to recruit absolute killers ready to make their final season count. Even though the Frogs just lost to 1-seed South Carolina, back-to-back trips to the quarterfinals after a one-season about-face make the third-year coach one of the hottest commodities in collegiate basketball.
