Don’t misunderstand what happened Saturday, because the entire day was among the wildest in recent college-football memory, with so many top-ranked teams losing. The Frogs aren’t suddenly a good squad or in contention for a laudable postseason or anything. Still, beating Baylor never gets old for Frog faithful. TCU has now won six of the last seven (six-seven reference organically serendipitous) over the Bears.
Both teams came off bye weeks but with vastly different trajectories. TCU had just lost a disappointing squeaker at home against now second-ranked BYU, and Baylor rocketed to 55 points on the road over ASU (five more points than TCU’s offense has scored across their four meaningful games this season combined). Alas, none of that seemed to matter Saturday night.
Last week, I explained in great, annoying detail that the only solution to the Frogs’ offensive woes was to challenge Baylor deep and shed the conservatism that is clearly so dear to quarterback Jaden Craig (#1) and offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis. That happened, either by design or necessity, thanks partially to the early departure of running back Jeremy Payne (#26), who exited after the first offensive play of the game and didn’t return. Without Payne, the previously efficient rushing attack was dead on arrival, and the Frogs netted 33 total ground yards, after accounting for negative plays. Third-string option and Keller native Landon Walker (#27) was the most prolific with a 6-yard average and 36-yard total.
Luckily for the box score, Craig did challenge down the field, throwing two touchdowns against only one interception during one of the worst reverse flea-flicker plays I’ve seen in major college football. Receiver Jordan Dwyer (#7) showcased his big-play ability by tracking a long bomb and diverting through double coverage for TCU’s longest offensive play of the season, a 67-yard (again!) reception. Dwyer had almost half of the Frogs’ production with 150 receiving yards on six receptions. A successful third-quarter field goal attempt totaled 17 purple points and is the best scoring effort from the Frogs across their four games against power-four opponents. Sammis’ passing unit seems to be finding more midrange and downfield traction, though short throws and those to backs in the flat still seem difficult for Craig to complete with regularity.
Wins are fun, but the offense was concerningly unbalanced in Waco — 33 rushing yards against 294 passing yards is not where Sammis wants to live, but it might be the Frogs’ only option. The Bears’ line was committed to pressuring Craig early and often, and it might be the first game that I clearly saw the purple offensive line make repeated mistakes in pass coverage, often exposing the transfer senior to second-level stunts that were either picked up poorly, or not at all, especially in the interior line. The Frogs are averaging 12.5-points per game against major opponents and have scored only once — a field goal against BYU — in the fourth quarter of those games. However, Craig and Dwyer are showing better connection, and the more TCU proves they can threaten downfield, the easier things will be for potentially establishing the running game and keeping defenses from living in flood mode with their front seven all the time.
The most compelling story of the game was Andy Avalos’ defensive unit, and on Saturday, they played well enough that even former head coach Gary Patterson would have cracked a smile with a little tear in his eye. The purple defenders allowed only three field-goal attempts, one of which missed. The Bears never found their own end zone, and the Frogs intercepted their first pass against a major opponent, stripped a fumble in an important moment for the team’s momentum, and sacked Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway (#2) four times.
The Bears gained only 34 yards on the ground — one more than TCU’s inept unit –— and Lagway, who threw four touchdowns against the Sun Devils, was kept completely out of the end zone. Saturday was TCU’s stingiest scoreboard against a conference opponent since Patterson’s unit held Texas Tech to a single field goal back in 2017. The Frogs are statistically the best scoring defense in the conference but are paired with the second-worst scoring offense (Colorado is worse by the stats), but the Frogs hold the real toilet spot if you only count games against like opponents.
Aiding a stellar defensive performance was chance — John Hoyet Chance (#48), TCU’s punter, specifically. Chance punted eight times on Saturday — not indicative of a great offense — and Baylor’s average starting field position was their own 15 yard line. Chance and the punt unit pinned the Bears back within their own 5 yard line twice and within their own 12 three times more. With the exception of Chance having to punt from his own goal line in the second quarter, the Bears were pinned deep in their own territory most of the evening thanks to the precision of the junior from Shreveport who doesn’t just kick and pray but seems to have a meticulous draw and talent for landing balls within the 10 yard line and gunners eager to locate and down them. I don’t relish writing about how awesome the punter is, but it’s some consolation when the offense is struggling this badly.
In the 122 meetings of these two teams that both used to reside in Waco, the Frogs hold a seven-game series lead, and fifth-year head coach Sonny Dykes has lost to the Bears only once. The Frogs have six games remaining and no weeks off. On Saturday, they’ll host West Virginia, who won their first conference matchup this season, a three-point walk-off victory over Cincinnati. The Mountaineers give up points in bunches and have statistically the worst scoring defense in the Big 12, allowing 34 points per game. This is a great opportunity for TCU’s offense to find some swagger.
Defensively, it’s all about stopping quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (#3), who has struggled to consistently complete passes this season but exploded against the Bearcats for 464 yards through the air and 77 on the ground. Hawkins Jr. is a transfer from Oklahoma and played for both Allen and Frisco-Emerson in high school, so he’ll be eager to prove himself on the road and in front of family and friends near home as well. If the TCU defense can stymie the Mountaineer passing game, which has not been consistent , and contain Hawkins’ rushing ability (something they’ve not been great at), the Frogs should notch their fourth win of the season, as long as the offense can score 21 points against the worst defense remaining on their schedule.
