I didn’t attend Saturday’s game in Orlando against Central Florida. I never voluntarily visit America’s basement and am legally not allowed within 50 miles of a Disney World — long story, and it’s a matter of public record, so I won’t bore you with it here — but TCU lost, and it’s time to worry the Frogs might suck.
Fort Worth fanatics are working with a limited sample size. For us purists, it’s been two games. The games against Grambling and Arkansas State don’t count, though even the victory over the Red Wolves was concerning as TCU struggled to pull away against a Sun Belt Conference opponent. But through two games against unranked power-conference teams, the Frogs have managed two total end-zone finishes. Two measly touchdowns is not good no matter how hopelessly optimistic you force yourself to be.
Graduate transfer quarterback Jaden Craig (#1), about whom we’ve been force-fed a narrative that he’s the best player produced by Cambridge since Ryan Fitzpatrick, may have been overvalued by coaches and scouts. We’ll start with what Craig does have: a nice-looking throwing motion, the ability to throw an adequate deep ball, and real talent to sling during a rollout.
We must also evaluate what Craig is lacking, especially pertaining to the college game.
Pocket feel: Craig is not receiving what I’d call superior protection from this offensive line, yet his movement within protection looks shallow, slow, and uncomfortable under normal pressure.
Touch: Craig is not throwing friendly short and mid-range passes to his receivers. His balls have unnecessary zip, which Frog backs, wideouts, and tight ends are regularly dropping — TCU has the most drops of any team in the conference right now, which is not entirely Craig’s fault, but a passing game is a relationship between thrower and catcher, and the purple team’s isn’t harmonious right now.
Running chops: Craig is neither a threat on designed runs nor an especially effective scrambler. For a guy with good size and athleticism, he’s a disappointing runner, which places extra pressure on the standard rushing game, and defenses are exploiting it. The Frogs haven’t had a quarterback who could run an effective read-option since Max Duggan, and it shows.
Progression: Craig is not seeing the field well. He’s often locked onto a check down as the play starts. Seeing multiple receiving options isn’t happening fast enough.
Finally, and most damning: ball security. Perhaps Craig’s most hyped statistic making the leap from Ivy was that he protects the ball. So far against UNC and UCF, Craig has zero touchdowns and three turnovers and has taken seven sacks. The QB1 fumbled twice against the Tar Heels, losing one, and tossed two interceptions against the Golden Knights. Yes, he had seven touchdown passes against teams TCU paid to show up in Amon Carter, but the story against real competition is a tragedy akin to Macbeth. When this torture concludes, everyone connected might be metaphorically dead or at least on the job market.
I’m not ready to punt on Gordon Sammis yet — he is only four games into his TCU tenure, after all — but the second-half adjustments haven’t been stellar. UCF figured out what teams after them will mimic: neutralize the outside zone run with aggressive secondary pressure and force the Frogs into something that isn’t a checkdown pass. And success will follow. TCU went from more than 150 rushing yards against UNC to around 50 against UCF. If a prominent defensive end is able to beat the play-side blockers to the edge, or penetrate inside gaps, the outside zone doesn’t have much hope. The counters to this in major football are traps, counters, or a quarterback who can exploit an overly aggressive defense shifting to one side of the field, but none have been effectively utilized.
The return of Jordan Dwyer (#7), who played his first game this season, brought new life into the downfield attack. Dwyer caught five passes for 100 yards, including a gorgeous 43-yard strike over his inside shoulder on a well-placed pass. TCU’s best receiver continues to be questionable on the injury front and needed medical attention during the second half, but his presence introduced a downfield threat absent against North Carolina.
Every social media analyst is quick to blame the Frog offensive line for inadequate run drive and pass protection. These dozers aren’t the best, but I’d call them proficient in terms of the scheme. Stretch zones against a defense expecting the play is a lot to ask when cornerbacks come crashing down on the outside and there seems to be zero respect for the midrange passing game. Yes, TCU’s O-line could be providing Craig more time, but that’s time he had in Ireland that was burned up while doing nothing with the ball. Craig’s lack of scrambling and pocket feel are dragging down the offense. When the pocket collapses, as all inevitably do, there is no escape plan or threat of a mobile quarterback finding grass and continuing the play or punishing overzealous defensive ends for taking wide outside pursuit angles.
The miscalculation of Craig’s field vision could also be TCU’s own lack of passing defense. As a whole, Andy Avalos’ defense is doing a fine job of being opportunistic, generating pressure some of the time, and rallying to the ball. They are poor in midrange and zone pass coverage, full stop. The Frogs were a big zero in the passes-defended category on Saturday, and UCF’s quarterback Keyone Jenkins (#12) — who was picked off once and completed fewer than half of his attempts against Georgia State the previous week — went 19/20 and looked basically undefendable. Part of this was UCF’s plan to give him manageable throws and a game plan that worked for the transfer senior QB. Now it seems like TCU may need to do the same for their elder statesman. To my original point, Craig might have seemed like a can’t-miss home run against the Frogs’ lacking secondary during spring camp. In actuality, they’re making everyone who plays them seem prolific, without an interception against a Division I opponent this year, though they did force two fumbles out of Jenkins. But normally sure-handed receiver Ed Small (#18) lost two of his own to total four Frog turnovers during Saturday’s loss.
Credit where it’s due: Avalos’ unit is not surrendering gobs of points. TCU has been in striking distance against both of their power-four opponents, but no successful attack plan can be executed. The Frogs scored zero fourth-quarter points against the Heels and Knights and reached the end zone only during the first quarter in both games. That’s terrible.
To figure out how scared we should be, I consulted the official readiness matrix of the U.S. military. The DEFCON system was created by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff in the 1950s to provide a clear and standardized scale of defensive readiness during the Cold War with the USSR. For practical purposes, it was a fun way to gauge how close we were to a world-ending nuclear holocaust, as well as provide instructions to the military on which units should be on high alert. I believe fans of the Frog should be at DEFCON 3, which is two steps away from pissing neon but hyper-vigilant and ready to mobilize at a moment’s notice. Dykes — whether he realizes it or not — needs to show a much better product on the field regardless of systemic changes within his staff or roster. The Frogs have not looked ready to play, to adjust, or be disciplined and perform until the final whistle. Most of it falls, and should, on the offense and those coaches.
TCU continues conference play on Saturday evening when they host BYU, currently the top-ranked team in the Big 12 via the AP and coaches’ polls. The Cougars don’t have a spectacular victory or anything notable in their early schedule, but they’ve been punishing in the rushing game, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier (#47) is a scrambling threat and considered one of the best gamers in the conference. Avalos’ defense will be forced to commit extra help to stop the ground game when they’ve already shown themselves deficient against the pass, but I’m guessing the ground is the poison he’ll pick. The Frogs will need to play an entire game and score at least three touchdowns to have a chance for the home upset. From what they’ve shown thus far, it’s going to be a … bear.
