Game week is here. Start Instacarting your Lucky Charms and Guinness to leave out for the leprechauns on Friday night as an offering to the American Football gods that the Horned Frogs find pots o’ gold buried deep in the endzones in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday.
The Frogs brutalized the Heels last season in their opener 48-14, as the offense scored one, two, and three touchdowns in corresponding quarters. Bill Belichik’s team managed a single score in the first and last only on their way to a supremely disappointing season despite the hype of hiring a coach destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Saturday’s 11 a.m. kickoff is the opening of all major college football for the season, so expect everyone you know with taste in sports to be watching and therefore criticizing both squads. Both UNC and TCU have brand-new-to-them signal callers with substantial experience. The Frogs’ Jaden Craig (#1) is a graduate transfer from Harvard, and in powder blue, senior Billy Edwards Jr. (#9) is on his third career stop, spending three years to become the Heels’ starter. He completed a very productive junior season with Maryland before transferring to Wisconsin only to strain his knee in the first game of the year. He received a medical redshirt and transferred to Chapel Hill.
My readers know by now that I’m a “data Chad,” if nothing else. On paper, Craig is the more efficient passer, who cares for the ball like I do my own children, only losing one on occasion. Craig has also logged more years as a starter than Edwards. However, UNC’s QB does have the benefit of playing all his seasons at the top level of college football, while Craig will experience a different level of defensive backfield transferring to the Big 12 from the Ivy League. It’s a transition that shouldn’t be taken for granted and that should be approached with initial patience from mouth-foaming Frog fanatics as he navigates levels of size and speed which will be unfamiliar to him.
Craig’s targets aren’t new, but the huge-name receivers TCU fans have enjoyed for the last two seasons are gone. Senior wideout Jordan Dwyer (#7) is ready to be the next NFL-ready name in a purple jersey. Dwyer, who transferred from Idaho before last season and was often lined up opposite Eric McAllister Jr., was an 1,100-yard receiver with the Vandals before arriving in the Fort last season to rack up 54 receptions for 730 yards with Josh Hoover under center. The senior is already on the watchlist for the Biletnikoff award, awarded to the most outstanding receiver in college football each season.
Dwyer’s likely opposite wideout is Jeremy Scott (#6), a sophomore transfer from South Alabama with imposing size. At 6’3’’ and more than 200 pounds, he didn’t post flabbergasting stats last season, but he shows potential for big plays and TDs at the next level and should be a size mismatch on the outside.
Starting slot duties should go to sophomore Ed Small (#18), who suffered an injury last season but still proved a shifty and dangerous playmaker in traffic when healthy.
Courtesy TCU Athletics
TCU’s backfield should be a new emphasis over past schemes and athletic coordinators, which I won’t waste time naming anymore, but best of luck to them at South Carolina — enjoy all the interceptions and meaningless points that don’t win you games, Cocks. Junior Jeremy Payne (#26) is the headliner and was the hero of the Alamo Bowl, turning a benign swing pass into a highlight I’ll watch until my cremated ashes are spread outside a Taylor Swift concert. Complementing Payne’s speed and balance is graduate transfer Landon Walker (#27) by way of the Colorado School of Mines. Walker, a Keller native, is more likely to be used as a short-yardage back, sniffer, fullback, or all choices mentioned because of the versatility that his 230-pound frame brings. Rounding out the rotation is sophomore Jon Denman (#2), who carried the ball 50 times last season with adequate success despite being hamstrung by the scheme of that unit. Those three Texas natives provide an explosive spectrum of sizes and running styles while all possessing plenty of experience and savvy to introduce offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis’ stamp on the Frog attack.
Sonny Dykes is entering his fifth season as Head Frog, and while the report card might not be dominating, Dykes should still be considered a slam-dunk hire for the most part. A national-championship appearance, one slumpy 5-7 afterward, followed by back-to-back 9-win seasons is nothing to scoff at — though Texas A&M would have bought him out and paid him the GDP of a South American country not to coach by now.
Dykes seems to have addressed my biggest gripe with our beloved Gary Patterson. Gary kept coordinators around too long and was too loyal to them, but Dykes gives them only some time. He will dismiss them once the job clearly isn’t getting done. It happened with the bend-but-only-break-enough Joe Gillespie defense, and now it’s happened to Kendal Briles’ huge-stats-but-never-clutch offense. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has been an unequivocal improvement to that phase, and I’m optimistic that Sammis’ style will be both productive and an enhancement to the defense relating to time of possession and ball control, elements that Briles has not grasped or mastered as either a player or coach anywhere he’s been.
The Frogs are projected to be “second tier” in the Big 12, with an expected finish between sixth and seventh. Say it. You know you want to. Bookmakers put the line at 6.5 wins for the season. Classically, TCU is much more dangerous when beginning the season unranked with low expectations rather than the other way around. In my view, the Horned Frogs have a manageable schedule, especially considering UNC is the only power-five opponent they face pre-conference. Big 12 heavies BYU, Utah, and Kansas State all travel to Amon G. Carter, and the Frogs won’t visit Lubbock until the last regular season game. The Carter boys will have to visit Baylor and Tech, two venues that are particularly hostile, but the other road trips to Orlando and Tucson aren’t scary.
Week Zero will be educational if nothing else. Everyone from Aggies to Bears and even Longhorns will be watching the TCU game in Ireland this week, because there’s really nothing else to do — yet. So, have some corned beef and wash it down with Jameson for breakfast as we all try to figure out what Dykes’ fifth iteration of the Frogs looks like, along with every other fan who’s ready for their team to disappoint them again during another college football season.
