Predicting the obsolescence of a technology is sort of like prophesying the end of a recession – you can earn a lot of money in glossy newsmags and cable punditry by getting both wrong. “A lot of money” has never been in the cards for most bloggers and journalists, so I’ve got nothing to lose by saying: This Twitter thing won’t last another 20 years, at least not in its current casual, populist form.

This is not a hopeful prediction of flameout by some disgruntled Luddite. I love the internet, email, YouTube, many blogs, and even the controversial Wikipedia. I rely on MySpace for professional purposes. But despite the most recent ”Time” cover that exhults “How Twitter Will Change the Way We Live,” I believe that Twitter is a novelty that serves no natural purpose in our lives – at least, no purpose that texting, emailing, Facebook, and MySpace don’t already serve. Don’t trust me – go to this fascinating article by Harvard big wigs who break down the tweet hype.