It’s Baylor week, Frogs and Frogettes, so now seems as appropriate a time as any for a little Bible story. My grasp of divinity is shaky as expected, but I was reminded of a story that fits the Frogs’ situation all too well as I read the tale of Jonah and the whale that I’ve possessed for going on 40 years now to my sons.
For the non-Bible folk, Jonah was a messenger chosen by God to urge the people of Nineveh to repent for their evil ways or suffer destruction of the city as punishment for living their ancient Only-Fans lives. Jonah, for purposes of hyperbole and metaphor in this situation, is Horned Frog Offensive Coordinator Kendal Briles, just so we’re all on the same page.
I’m not for a moment suggesting Briles has been divinely picked to carry a message anywhere, but in Jonah’s tale, he spurns God’s charge and boards a ship headed in the opposite direction. As Jonah sleeps, a storm swells and starts to threaten the ship, tossing it to and fro while the innocent passengers’ and fishermen’s lives are threatened. Jonah — to his credit — admits that the storm has followed him, and if he’s tossed overboard, the waters will calm and everyone will be safe. There it is — that’s the section that caught my attention — but we’ll circle back.
Kansas State has now prevailed in six of the last seven meetings against TCU, though this specific Wildcat group has probably struggled the most of any the Frogs have recently faced and are still sitting with an overall losing record after this weekend’s win. The lone victory for TCU came during the magical national title-game run, which KSU avenged during the Big 12 championship later that season in Arlington. Still 4-2, the Frogs are now seated in the bottom-third of the conference and would need a flawless remainder of the season — plus some help — to be considered a contender for the conference, which is not an enviable spot to sit halfway through the season.
Saturday’s first half mostly met expectations. Kevorian Barnes (#2) is back full-time from injury and seems to be rushing the ball effectively. Quarterback Josh Hoover (#10) didn’t seem sharp but was poised enough to make the plays needed when set up for success, and the defense was keeping Wildcat quarterback Avery Johnson (#2) mostly contained, despite his exceptional running ability.
With the score tied at 7 and two minutes remaining in the first half, everything went to hell. Hoover misfired on a lateral pass to Ed Small (#18), which fell “incomplete” but was in actuality a fumble and returned by KSU for a touchdown. It’s not clear if Briles called a wide-receiver screen or a backward pass intended to be thrown downfield by Small, but the execution blunder put the Frogs in a terrible position and zapped any momentum they’d enjoyed to that point.
Hoover’s heartaches had only just begun for the afternoon. On their second drive after halftime, the K-State defense scored again off an interception, and the TCU defense — who had given up only 7 to that point — now had to contend with a ball control-oriented offense with a two-touchdown advantage. Hoover would throw another interception in the fourth quarter, awarding the ’Cats a short field and an eventual field goal. Hoover’s three turnovers were converted into 17 points for KSU, only three of which the Wildcat offense needed to grace the field for.
Hoover struggled on the road, obviously, but the blame belongs with Briles’ adjustments, namely abandoning what seemed to be an effective rushing attack. In addition to the three traditional turnovers, TCU lost the ball on downs three times and in total had nine drives of five plays or fewer. This manner of offense — even when scoring — is their own defense’s worst enemy. Though you’d have to dig into the Buck U archives a bit, one of my most consistent criticisms of Briles is that his offenses don’t possess the ball. They either score quickly or punt, which puts the rest of the team in an unsustainable spot against matched or better opponents. This phenomenon was observed going back to his time leading the Arkansas offense as well. Kansas State clung to the ball for almost an entire quarter longer than the Frogs. Even with stingy defensive play, that’s asking a lot.
What’s worse is that Barnes seemed to be rolling effectively during the first half, but after the fumble-score, the running game was purely for show as Briles doubled down on what had burned them and dialed up 47 pass attempts by the time the game was over. Funkytown backs carried only 16 times for 88 yards total. It’s not that TCU couldn’t run. It’s that the run game was simply deserted in the most untimely way.
Andy Avalos’ defense overperformed again. Despite not forcing a turnover, they allowed the K-State offense into the end zone only three times, with both second-half touchdowns coming on drives of 10 plays or more and after enduring substantial minutes on the field.
The time is now for Sonny Dykes to save himself — and the rest of the ship headed to Tarshish — and throw Briles into the proverbial sea of available coordinators. If Dykes doesn’t do something soon, Avalos will be the interim head coach, and it’ll be time for the next great search for the Head Frog. That may seem harsh, but if Penn State can fire James Franklin despite the team being a consistent factor in the national hunt but unable to snag a natty, you’d better believe Dykes can be gone just as fast. Gary Patterson is, was, and will always be a TCU legend, but he, in my opinion, largely capsized because of his unwillingness to feed the fish and appease the angry storms with ineffective coordinators.
All that’s left is to try and make progress toward the unofficial Texas championship. TCU only plays in-state matchups with their fellow private brethren plus Houston this year, and with SMU down, the next up is their oldest and most consistent rival in the Baylor Bears at Amon G. Carter on Saturday morning. Somehow the Frogs are 2.5-point favorites — likely because our boys have played much better at home than on the road this season — but Baylor is yet another team that has been prolific on offense with a slippery quarterback who must be prevented from scampering on critical downs. The Bears are coming off a bye and are still theoretically a threat to be conference-relevant despite their loss to Arizona State with an identical score to the Frogs’ matchup with the Sun Devils. Baylor took down SMU as well with a field-goal victory in overtime and also bested Kansas State by 1, thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of the game.
The defense in Waco is an exploitable weakness, allowing at least 27 points against every FBS opponent they’ve faced this season, but their offense has buoyed them, averaging 36 points per game with a pass-centric attack and play distribution that mimics the Frogs in many ways. As impressed as I’ve been with Avalos’ defense this season, Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson (#13) has 19 touchdowns against only four interceptions, and I’m worried the Bears’ big-play ability will be too much for TCU’s offense to go tit-for-tat with in a shootout. Like before, I highly advise against betting on this game — or any TCU game, or any rivalry game for that matter — of which this one checks all those stay-away boxes. Still, despite a 3-point loss in Waco last season, the Frogs have won four of the last five meetings in the Revivalry, and the home field certainly seems to matter to this group.
I’d never go on record as actively rooting against our Frogs — and certainly not while facing Baylor, of all teams — but the sky is gray, and the waters are choppy. If we’re going to stop this ship from taking significant damage, or perhaps sinking altogether, someone might need to be thrown to the waves as an offering, and we all know who it should be. It’s up to Dykes as the captain to decide if he’s willing to risk catastrophe to save Jonah from the inevitable whale.
