This week’s Buck U is akin to two old friends with young children catching up after months of not speaking: It feels like the busiest season of life with so much to catch up on, yet there’s really not that much to say.
Since we last caught up, the Frogs managed to break their Big 12 road curse against bottom-feeder West Virginia, though it wasn’t without strife. For the second consecutive game, TCU had to survive an opponent storming back in the final minutes with an onside kick in hopes of stealing a game from the jaws of defeat. Just like against Baylor, the Frogs managed to stave off the onslaught and leave Morgantown with their first conference road win of the season, but 23 total points against the Mountaineers was hardly confidence-inspiring from an offense capable of so much more.
The road trip led TCU into a bye week and two weeks to prepare for an Iowa State team that was in freefall after starting the season with five victories and a national ranking but had lost four consecutive before arriving at Amon G. Carter on Saturday afternoon. The Frogs — who had been moving the ball effectively through the first half, at least — struggled. QB Josh Hoover (#10) tossed two interceptions within the first three drives, and a continually shaky kicking game (thanks to injury) left the Frogs in a 6-3 hole at halftime — not an inspiring indicator of things to come.
Despite the lackluster start, the offense did find traction in the passing game, scoring by way of efficient midrange passing in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The rushing game never amounted to much — a recurring theme — but I can’t entirely blame OC Kendal Briles and HC Sonny Dykes (other than their scheme not being designed to rush the ball when specifically challenged). The Iowa State defense committed their linebackers and safeties to smothering the run. It was a marked decision, forcing Hoover to beat them through the air, which he did, but not with enough continuity to win the game.
What ultimately did in TCU’s game and therefore season were special-teams blunders. A doinked field goal in the second quarter and an over-kicked punt returned for a touchdown in the fourth were the difference in losing to an Iowa State team that played the power run and controlled the ball well but whose offense is still mostly ineffective and pedestrian. The TCU defense tried to pick up the slack by intercepting Rocco Becht (#3) twice to match Hoover’s misfires, but Jeremy Payne’s (#26) lost fumble left the Frogs down one in the turnover differential. Andy Avalos’ defensive unit surrendered an effective 14 points, which should be good enough to win with an offense that’s built to be an explosive passing machine.
Saturday’s loss leaves Dykes’ Frogs as exactly average in the conference, sitting eighth of 16 teams and with precisely no chance of making the College Football Playoff out of a group that might see the conference champion and one additional member invited. Even worse, Iowa State was the most winnable of the final four games. BYU is freshly defeated by Texas Tech and hosts the Frogs in Provo for a 9:15 kickoff Saturday night in the mountains. TCU hasn’t been great on the road, and the Cougars have shown week after week they’re a team that knows how to win close games, while our boys in purple seem to do a lot of unconfident clinging for life, even against average teams.
The following week against the other Cougars, Houston, will be no easy task, even though there might be as many Horned Frog faithful in attendance as U of H commuters. The regular season will wrap up with now 22nd-ranked Cincinnati, who are looking like what TCU wanted to be on offense but couldn’t seem to manifest.
Am I being dramatic saying the season is over? No. There is nothing left for these Frogs to achieve, and Dykes and Briles have effectively squandered the potential of Hoover, Eric McAlister (#1), and super-senior safety Bud Clark (#21). This would be the time for the coaching staff to make systemic changes to improve the program for next year. Winning two or three more games this season — which seems unlikely with how the team has played — would be worthy of a head pat and a “good for y’all.” It’s unlikely the Frogs can match their nine-win effort from last season, and it seems like we’re stuck in above-average purgatory until Dykes makes changes or someone makes them for him.
I’m on record regularly lauding the job Avalos has done with the defense, how opportunistic they are and that they’ve kept the offense in games in which no favors were given due to bad turnovers or special-teams miscues. That said, the Frogs as a squad just have trouble finishing strong. We all remember Dykes’ first season and the HypnoToad that seemed to be able to win under any circumstance, which is great — until it isn’t. In conference play, the Frogs have given up 162 points or 27 per game — not terrible — though TCU as a team has given up more than 42% of those in the fourth quarter — which is terrible.
The offense has scored a combined 59 fourth-quarter points during conference play (10 fewer than they’ve given up), and it’s easy to surmise that the timing and execution holes of this team have led to two three-point conference losses and are the difference between fans leaning in for hope or googling potential coaching candidates.
The most gut-wrenching aspect of this season so far is the company we keep and how irrelevant we are in our own state — or even our own backyard. Texas A&M is one of three undefeated teams in the country and sits with a No. 3 ranking. Texas Tech has one loss and is eighth-ranked with an inside track to play for the Big 12 championship after beating BYU on Saturday. Texas, despite their two losses, has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs as either the third or fourth SEC squad, depending on the rest of their season. But, hey, those are big-spending schools, and, save for Texas, they’ve been irrelevant — maybe it’s just their time, right?
It’s worse than that. Our neighbors to the north and east (UNT and SMU) each have legitimate scratch-off chances of making the playoff, while TCU is playing a multi-state Powerball. The Mustangs are in a four-way tie for the top of the ACC, and UNT is in a similar logjam atop the American Athletic Conference. The Mean Green are 8-1 and unlikely to check all the boxes needed to be the highest-ranked “other conference” team but are still riding a much better chance than the Frogs.
Don’t misunderstand me. Winning is fun, and I’m ready to root for the boys in purple throughout the rest of this — and every — season. But we just watched a team with a good but injury-depleted defense and feeble passing game best what is supposed to be the DFW International Airport of passing attacks at home in good weather with a week to rest and prepare. It’s time to reevaluate what we think we know about what works in college football since the Frogs can’t seem to buy a win against a boring, Midwestern, corn-fed rushing attack. The Frogs’ three losses — all in-conference — have come by a combined 19 points, and during those three losses, Hoover threw a combined six interceptions and TCU lost two more fumbles. It’s easy to say the Frogs need better execution, but good coaches set their players up in systems that help them do just that. This team had tremendous potential to be a factor in the playoff race this season, but every game just feels like more and more underachievement and missed opportunities.
