Believe it or not, the most frustrating part of TCU’s Week Zero loss to North Carolina in Ireland wasn’t the loss itself. It’s that Fort Worth fans now have to wait the better part of a month to figure out if this team is mediocre, woefully bad, or just suffered key breakdowns.
The Horned Frogs endured a week of somewhat embarrassing press after a locker-room incident inspired them to reject the media credentials of the city’s oldest daily paper, which was partially founded by the namesake of the school’s stadium. All that aside, travelling overseas for a Week Zero contest comes with many pitfalls. Performance after long travel is dicey, weather in Ireland is often moist, and playing the first game of major ball for the entire season is a recipe for field execution to be mushy at best.
In the first game of Sonny Dykes’ fifth season — and first with Gordon Sammis as offensive coordinator — wasn’t exciting. The Frogs managed 10 points, all of them in the first quarter. TCU led on Saturday for exactly 2 minutes and 56 seconds of clock time. Neither team found the endzone after swapping sides of the field for the first time, and the entire afternoon just wasn’t very dynamic.
New quarterback Jaden Craig (#1) isn’t a world beater, but if you’re paying attention, he wasn’t supposed to be. I rewatched this game twice, and Craig was mostly efficient, at times too careful, and made a couple of key mistakes, but the transfer from Harvard was brought to drive the bus, not to perform an engine swap and drive at Monster Jam. It’s one game, and standout wide receiver Jordan Dwyer (#7) was a game-time decision who ultimately didn’t play. Craig was better in the first half, but neither team had much to crow about offensively after halftime.
Objectively, Craig held the ball too long and wasn’t completely synced with his receivers, forgivable shortcomings early in the season. Two fumbles (one lost after being sacked from behind after a missed block by the left tackle) were the only obvious mistakes, and despite an errant placement or two, no passes were intercepted.
The offensive attack — for both teams — was ground-based. Frog Jeremy Payne (#26) touched the ball at more than double the rate of any non-quarterback for either team, racking up 142 yards on 25 carries, many of them stretch plays to the outside which did have a discernible blocking scheme and didn’t just rely on raw athleticism out of nebulous pass sets by the offensive line. Jon Denman (#2) appeared in the red zone as a change-of-pace back and scored the Frogs’ lone touchdown. Ed Small (#18) was Craig’s favorite target, catching nine passes, and performed kick and punt-returning duties as well.
Overall, the offense was efficient, controlled the clock, and picked up yards in a predictable and deliberate manner. Their failures came down to key moments. Twice the Frogs couldn’t convert fourth-and-short opportunities within the UNC 10-yard line. Payne was stuffed on fourth-and-one from the 5, and Craig hemorrhaged an ill-advised shovel pass from the 10 on fourth-and-two as he scrambled to his left, a situation he’ll see on film where he could have put his helmet down and plowed for the first down but didn’t. The Frogs also turned the ball over on downs once from the purgatory yard line (too far to kick, too close to punt), but that’s more of a measured risk. Despite winning the traditional turnover battle one lost fumble to the Tar Heels’ two, three exits on downs were the difference between a close loss and a convincing victory.
The other key breakdown was a bad deep snap over the punter’s head which was eventually kicked out of the back of the endzone for a safety to avoid a UNC touchdown (a smart play in an otherwise shit situation). The safety put the Heels in the lead and the Frogs on the back foot, contributing to fourth-down attempts over field goals later in the game.
Less obvious was how badly Dykes’ crew was hamstrung by penalties. A more deliberate running game often makes staying on schedule during early downs essential. We can no longer rely on Josh Hoover and Eric McAlister to air things out for a casual 30-yard pickup. The Frogs were penalized 11 times for 89 yards, compared to only three for 20 for UNC. Several holding calls put the Frogs behind the sticks, and a ticky-tack unsportsmanlike against Payne killed an otherwise promising drive.
The defensive side was equally guilty as facemasks and a head-scratching roughing the passer call as UNC’s Billy Edwards (#9) was speared while sitting on his bottom after a bad snap revived otherwise dead-in-the-water drives into clock-running and field-flipping opportunities.
Defensively, it’s hard to be upset about allowing 13 points. UNC’s offense loaded up their running game and drained the clock near the end of the game, and the Frog secondary surrendered midrange receptions to Edwards, who looked and threw like the more polished quarterback. But Andy Avalos’ group did force two fumbles and held UNC to field goal attempts on two drives (one of which was sailed right) while forcing approximately a 30% third-down conversion rate. They did their job.
I almost never write about these games within 24 hours, feeling like it gives me space to be more objective. There are lots of things to like about the direction of TCU football right now. There was an actual offensive gameplan with a blocking scheme on Saturday, and after the last two years of, “Here ya go, Josh,” that’s pretty exciting. Not needing a quarterback with generational speed or arm talent to move the ball is encouraging. A defense without any obvious or egregious flaws (at least yet) is reassuring. There is also the distinct possibility that this UNC team is a nine or 10-win conference contender in the ACC. They weren’t going to be bad forever under Bill Belichick.
Now Frog fans have to wait to see if I’m being overly optimistic or should have gone with my first instinct, which was to shred this team for being woefully underprepared to perform, but that really just wasn’t what I saw on the field. This is a team moving in a completely new direction which suffered mental breakdowns in a weird international college football exhibition. That’s what these pre-conference games are now. They don’t matter, especially the early ones.
Everything is about conference play now. TCU opens at home in two weeks against their paid opponent, Grambling State. It would be nice to see Dwyer healthy and Craig toss at least two touchdowns for confidence. Otherwise, there won’t be much to learn, unless things really go sideways.
My personal viewing recommendations for a bare slate this weekend are UNT at Indiana on Saturday morning to keep tabs on Hoover in a new system in which he’s bound to be a Heisman hopeful. I’ll then spy on our Baptist neighbors to the south during a neutral-site game against Auburn in the afternoon slot before clicking on Clemson at LSU while boiling in a hot tub in Broken Bow on Saturday night, mostly because there won’t be anything else to watch. Wisconsin at Notre Dame on Sunday night is a fun way to enjoy holiday-weekend football before the NFL ramps up and Mickey Mouse in pads can start making their yearly case for being the best team to ever exist. Monday’s face off with SMU at Florida State is a meaningful Week 1 matchup between teams who could be at the top of their conference, and despite TCU-SMU dropping the yearly Iron Skillet matchup, it’s the least we can do to watch our cross-town rivals strive to qualify as College Football Playoff cannon fodder again.
