We have survived what my wife astutely calls “the winter of summer,” a midweek cold front that brought cooler temperatures — for August. And we are staring down the barrel of a locked and loaded first week of college football. The obvious headliner is a Saturday-morning heavyweight tilt in the Horseshoe as top-ranked Texas visits the third-ranked Buckeyes. The game will prove a pivotal talking point until at least midseason for SEC and Big 10 homers alike. Frog fans really don’t have a specific stake in the contest, though TCU can claim far more victories over the Longhorns than Ohio State. In their six matchups, the Frogs have claimed victory over OSU only once, which was near the beginning of the civil rights movement. Most other ranked teams will play multidirectional state universities this week, except fourth-ranked Clemson hosting ninth-ranked LSU on Saturday evening and sixth-ranked Notre Dame visiting 10th-ranked Miami on Sunday.
Careful readers should have noticed that I’ve yet to mention TCU’s opponent, and that’s because the Frogs will be the veritable caboose of opening weekend in an oddball matchup in Chapel Hill at North Carolina during Bill Belichick’s college-coaching debut. Belichick, who is considered a lock for the NFL’s Hall of Fame as quickly as next year, will continue what has been a media circus, mostly because of his relationship with Jordon Hudson. The former college cheerleader — 48 years Belichick’s junior — has been a fixture with the coach over the last year and a half. Hulu is also reportedly filming a season-long docuseries, so expect to see some purple highlights when it airs. Despite the obvious jokes surrounding the coach’s personal life, being the guinea Frogs for Belichick’s maiden game is unnerving. Expect special teams trickeration, outstanding defensive scheme design, and an unflappable command of the game’s flow. No one earns six Super Bowl rings by accident, and assuming anyone in college football can outcoach him is a fool’s game.
Courtesy TCU Athletics
The Tar Heels won six games last season during the second tenure of former Texas coach Mack Brown. TCU is returning from an eight-win campaign and a convincing bowl victory, though in the NIL and transfer era, past performances can amount to very little. Most notably, the Frogs return QB Josh Hoover, who is gracing several watch lists for best quarterback, and has been head-hunted — unsuccessfully — by major teams since last season. The Horned Frogs were competitive in every loss last year, save maybe for SMU, and displayed grit and the ability to win close, something that has been a hallmark so far of Sonny Dykes’ two-year tenure, but everyone in Fort Worth is hoping his third can lead TCU back to the playoffs.
The most pressing questions about the veracity of TCU’s chances of making conference and national noise lie with the offense. Assuming Hoover is as good or better with another year and offseason of experience, the receiving corps is essentially new. Savion Williams and Jack Bech were twin playmakers capable of scoring from anywhere on the field last season. Both have since departed for the NFL, and Eric McAlister returns as the go-to threat. The senior from Azle accumulated five scores and more than 750 yards last season but did so as the third threat. We don’t yet know how he’ll operate as the frontman.
More concerning is the absence of a reliable running game. The Frogs cobbled last season’s together with spit, duct tape, and Savion Williams, the fix-all for offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. With Williams gone, TCU is going to need to find a bell cow or at least a cohort of backs to fill the void left by Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado two seasons ago. No one on the running backs depth chart saw significant action last season. Williams is now a Green Bay Packer, and Cam Cook, who Williams essentially took over for, transferred to Jacksonville State.
Though Briles holds a fondness for throwing to establish the rushing game, we as fans have seen the bottom fall out faster than emerging digital currencies. Monday night will be demonstrative of where Dykes and Briles are leaning with how they partition rushing attempts. Sophomore Jeremy Payne has the speed to be threatening and is a capable receiver, but he is not the physical specimen of Williams and is less likely to be a presence between the tackles. Senior Trent Battle is a bigger body but struggled with injuries last season. UTSA transfer Kevorian Barnes and redshirt freshman Nate Palmer round out a group without a clear headliner, while fans just desperately hope Briles has found a solution to the Frogs’ short-yardage woes from last season.
Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos will be looking for a more consistent start to the season after surrendering an unholy quantity of points during the first half of his first campaign — which was not helped by a turnover-happy offense. Avalos’ 3-3-5 has been porous against run-prolific teams but settled in to finish the last several games on a high note, giving up only a field goal during the bowl game.
Ultimately, the results on Monday night in North Carolina are not significant toward TCU’s goal of winning the conference and securing a playoff spot but will be illuminating as to how close this squad is to hitting their stride. The Horned Frogs’ early slate appears daunting. After hosting Abilene Christian in Week 2, there is little respite from the meat of their schedule as the Frogs face 16th-ranked SMU before traveling to their first conference tilt against 11th-ranked Arizona State the next week. TCU hosts Colorado before road-tripping again to Kansas State. Of the three ranked Big 12 squads currently on the schedule, TCU will be at Amon G. Carter only against Iowa State (who beat the Wildcats in Ireland on Saturday).
If you’re planning to watch the Tar Heel telecast, don’t be shocked when the narrative is centered on Belichick. Or even Hudson, whom I suspect will receive ample camera time. But Frog fans should be focused on who is behind Hoover, how often, and what Briles does with them. The ability to establish the rushing game is paramount to success this season. If Briles had figured out what to do with Williams sooner last season, TCU might have been in a position to make a run at the conference. The thought of Hoover tossing 40-plus attempts against Ol’ Bill’s defense makes me nauseous, and if we see that, as my 8-year-old would say, “We’re cooked.”
